Afghanistan at the Crossroads of Civilizations: An Analysis of the Country's Geopolitical Positioning a New Stage of Transport Links

Historically, the territory of present-day Afghanistan served as the "Crossroads of Asia." The shortest and most convenient routes from Central Asia (Turkestan) to the Indian Ocean and the Indian subcontinent, and from China to Iran and the Persian Gulf ran through Afghanistan.

The advent of colonialism, the steep rise in maritime freight traffic against the backdrop of stagnation in land communications, as well as the partitioning of Central Asia into spheres of influence between the British and Russian empires—all of these factors contributed to the historical routes through Afghanistan being abandoned. As a result of these developments, Afghanistan itself became a "geopolitical periphery," experiencing a lag in its economic development.

A new phase in the conflict in Afghanistan, which commenced with the deployment of Soviet troops into the country, resulted in a protracted civil war, numerous casualties, and extensive destruction, further marginalising Afghanistan from the global economy. However, the current situation is one in which all of Afghanistan's neighbors are experiencing dynamic development and integration into international economic processes, with a focus on transit and logistics. In contrast, Afghanistan remains a relatively isolated and underdeveloped region on the economic map of Eurasia, despite the increasing popularity of the shortest routes through Afghanistan.

In 2012, the government of Turkmenistan, in collaboration with Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Afghanistan, initiated the Lazurite Corridor project. The initial segment of the proposed route was to be the railway line extending from the Torgundi checkpoint on the Afghan-Turkmen border to Herat. The route project was designed to connect the city of Herat in Afghanistan with Ashgabat in Turkmenistan. It then proceeded to the Caspian port of Turkmenbashi, across the Caspian Sea, with access to Baku. It traversed Georgia's territory, ultimately reaching the Turkish cities of Ankara and Istanbul.

However, the implementation of the project was hindered by a number of complex political events, the ongoing civil war in Afghanistan, and the change of power in that country. The Trans-Afghan Corridor has once again become a topic of interest following geopolitical changes related to the Russian-Ukrainian war and tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, the rapid development of transit along the Middle Corridor between China and Europe, in which Kazakhstan has begun to play a key role, has contributed to this renewed interest. The rapidly developing economies of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan have also expressed interest in a route to South Asia that is both direct and convenient.



Two prospective Trans-Afghan Corridor projects are currently under consideration.
The initial route traverses Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, encompassing the construction of the Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway. The implementation of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will serve to enhance the significance of this project. The implementation of these two projects will facilitate the establishment of a convenient railway route from China to the Indian Ocean, which will traverse Central Asia and Afghanistan. The second project entails the construction of a railway route through Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, extending from Torghundi to Herat, Kandahar, Spin, and Buldak. It was observed by experts that the Trans-Afghan Corridor, traversing these routes, has the potential to reduce the time required for the delivery of goods between Central and South Asian countries by approximately tenfold, while simultaneously reducing the associated transportation costs. In addition, the route allows for the expeditious delivery of goods by rail to the Indian Ocean from Europe, Russia, and China. Moreover, it is noteworthy that Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan not only maintained their diplomatic relations with Afghanistan despite the rise of the Taliban, but also enhanced their engagement with the country. In December 2023, the Kazakh authorities removed the Taliban movement from the list of organizations banned in the country. In the words of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, this initiative, coupled with Kazakhstan's endeavours to establish the UN Regional Centre for Sustainable Development for Central Asia and Afghanistan in Almaty, will facilitate the country's enhanced integration into the global community and pave the way for novel avenues of humanitarian assistance for the Afghan populace.

In recent times, a number of factors have come to light that could facilitate the accelerated implementation of the Trans-Afghan Corridor project through Turkmenistan and Afghan Herat. During the visit of the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, to Turkmenistan, the potential for the construction of the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Afghanistan railway route was discussed in depth. A memorandum was signed regarding the development of the Trans-Afghan Corridor, which will traverse the territories of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan, with access to Pakistan and the Indian Ocean. The new corridor will facilitate further enhancement of the transport interconnectivity of Central Asian countries and will become a strategically crucial route for the interconnection of South Asia with other regions of Eurasia. Currently, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan are engaged in a joint initiative to construct a new railway line, Turgundi-Herat-Kandahar-Spin-Buldak, which will traverse the western border of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and ultimately extend to Pakistan and India. The Turkmen side has already reached an agreement with its Afghan counterparts regarding the establishment of a logistics center in Turgundi, with construction scheduled to commence in the near future.

Concurrently, the Taliban government in Afghanistan is currently developing the Herat-Kandahar intra-Afghan railway project as part of the Trans-Afghan Corridor. The project will play an important role in the future, not only in facilitating rapid and convenient communication between Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan with Pakistani ports in the Indian Ocean, but also in supporting the economic development of Afghanistan.

The Herat-Kandahar railway offers the advantage of circumventing the challenging mountain ranges of the Hindu Kush. Consequently, the construction of this railway may prove to be a more cost-effective undertaking than the construction of a railway along the Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar route, which is also likely to play a pivotal role in intra-Afghan development, given its proximity to the country's capital.

The Trans-Afghan corridor, which traverses Torghundi, Herat, and Kandahar, has the potential to serve as a vital link between the transportation networks of Central and South Asia. This route is poised to become one of the most promising directions of the North-South corridor, which is undergoing dynamic development. Another promising direction passes through Azerbaijan and Iran, and both are connected by the Middle Corridor. The Trans-Afghan Corridor will thus facilitate connectivity between the Middle Corridor, which links China and Europe, and the Indian Ocean, passing through the territory of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan through Afghanistan with Pakistan.

In this scenario, the construction of the Trans-Afghan Corridor will have a notable impact on the geopolitical landscape of Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East. The countries of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan will enhance their status as pivotal transportation nodes, facilitating connectivity between Eurasia and South Asia. As a transit country, Afghanistan occupies a pivotal position in this initiative, which has the potential to facilitate the development of its infrastructure and enhance its economic standing, while simultaneously augmenting its geopolitical significance. Pakistan, which will gain access to Central Asia through this corridor, will also benefit from improved transport links.

In addition to its role as a transit country, Afghanistan represents a significant and promising market in its own right. The population of the country is estimated to range from 45 to 50 million individuals, according to various sources. Over the past two years, the volume of trade between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan has increased by approximately 100%, reaching a total of $987.9 million. The delivery of goods from Kazakhstan to Afghanistan, as well as the transit of goods from Kazakhstan to Pakistan, is currently conducted primarily along the existing multimodal route "Kazakhstan - Uzbekistan - Afghanistan - Pakistan," which traverses Termez, Mazar-i-Sharif, and Kabul.

As a result of the trans-Afghan corridor, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are becoming strategic partners in guaranteeing transit between the countries of Central Asia and global markets via South Asia. This presents an opportunity for these countries to reinforce their status as pioneers in the development of new transport routes.

Concurrently, trade between Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan with Afghanistan is already developing dynamically. At the Kazakh-Afghan business forum in Astana in August 2023, the parties reached an agreement to increase the trade turnover to $3 billion. The goal of Uzbekistan and Afghanistan is to increase trade turnover to $2 billion, while Turkmenistan and Afghanistan have set a goal of $1 billion. To enhance the availability of grain and flour, Kazakhstan has proposed that Afghanistan utilize the capabilities of the Beineu terminal, situated in the Mangistau region and offering direct access to the Kazakh-Turkmen border. It may serve as a land transit point for the further transportation of products destined for export. The terminal has the capacity to accommodate up to 100,000 tons of grain, 12,000 tons of flour, and up to 3,000 tons of compound feed every month.

The implementation of trans-Afghan corridor projects will inevitably attract the attention of major international players, including China, Russia, the European Union, and the United States. As part of its Belt and Road Initiative, China has expressed interest in supporting the expansion of trade with South Asia via this corridor.

Russia, which has the shortest access to Pakistan and India through Afghanistan, may also find benefits in strengthening cooperation with Central Asia. It is conceivable that the European Union and the United States may be amenable to providing support for the advancement of stability in Afghanistan through this corridor. Pakistan has expressed interest in both the Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan routes of the Trans-Afghan corridor.

At a recent meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Islamabad, the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, Olzhas Bektenov, and the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shahbaz Sharif, discussed the prospects for the further development of the existing multimodal route, "Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan," and the new transport corridor, "Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan." Both routes were identified as of interest.

The Trans-Afghan Corridor offers Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan the prospect of new economic opportunities. First and foremost, this provides access to the markets of Pakistan, India, and the Persian Gulf, thereby significantly expanding export opportunities for both countries. Pakistan and India represent vast markets with a growing demand for energy, food, and industrial goods, which supplies from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan can meet. Furthermore, the establishment of the Trans-Afghan Corridor will facilitate new avenues for trade between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf, establishing a crucial transportation corridor for the delivery of not only raw materials but also industrial products.

The advancement of the Trans-Afghan Corridor necessitates substantial investments in transportation infrastructure, encompassing railways, roads, and ports. Such investments will not only enhance the internal logistics capabilities of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, but will also serve to augment their appeal to international investors. In the long term, this can contribute to the growth of the economies of both countries, the development of new industries, and the creation of jobs.

Kazakhstan is prepared to make a substantial contribution to the construction of the Trans-Afghan Highway, providing materials for the superstructure of the railway, sleepers, and fasteners produced domestically. Furthermore, in the future, Kazakhstan, as one of the largest exporters of oil and gas and a number of other mineral resources in the region, will be in a position to reduce its dependence on traditional routes and diversify its trade routes.



The Central Asian countries, having inherited the logistics infrastructure from the USSR, were for an extended period of time reliant on Russia as the primary conduit for external communication by land. Should the Middle Corridor be revived for Central Asian states, namely historical Turkestan, economic ties along the ancient Silk Road with China and Europe could be re-established. Similarly, the Trans-Afghan route could facilitate the re-establishment of traditional economic ties with Pakistan, India, and other countries of South Asia that have been in place for many centuries.

Vladimir Tskhvediani

SR-CENTER.INFO