From Beijing to Astana - Evolution of the “Central Asia – China” Format

On the threshold of the second China-Central Asia summit, which will take place on June 16-17 in Astana, Kazakhstan, it is clear that it will be fruitful, since these are two mutually beneficial partners for each other. The first summit was held in Xi'an, China, in 2023, under the leadership of Chinese President Xi Jinping. As was noted at the time, the meeting was a landmark event, marking a new phase in China's cooperation with the Central Asian countries.
First of all, for the Central Asian countries - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan - cooperation with China is another serious guarantee of stability, support for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security. After all, a partnership can only develop in such favorable conditions. Therefore, we can expect that the information exchange in combating terrorism and extremism will be continued and strengthened. China is also ready to help ensure mechanisms for coordinating and supporting peace and stability in Afghanistan, which is very important for the region. At the same time, Beijing continues to advocate non-interference in internal affairs, strengthening the strategic autonomy of the countries of the China-Central Asia format, as well as national interests in a multipolar world.
China remains the largest trading partner and significant investor in the region. In 2024, the trade volume between China and Central Asian countries reached a record $94.8 billion. Economic issues will certainly include investments, partnerships in various fields, transit of hydrocarbons, cooperation in the field of high technologies and AI, and the development of green energy. The problems in the field of electricity generation are quite acute in Central Asia. Beijing is most interested in the Central Asian reserves of rare earth metals (REM) and is ready to invest in the mining industry in the region.
A separate topic is the diversification of logistics opportunities, the development of connectivity and infrastructure – the reconstruction and construction of highways, railway tracks, the creation of transport hubs, etc. - that is, the key corridors of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative, of which the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor is an integral part, along which the number of freight trains is steadily increasing. Within the region, it also includes the China-Tajikistan road through the Pamir Plateau, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan road through the Tien Shan, the China-Kazakhstan oil pipeline, the China-Central Asia gas pipeline, the China-Europe railway express connecting Eurasia, the China-Tajikistan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkey multimodal transport corridor, the China-Tajikistan-Northern Afghanistan economic corridor, and others. The relationship between the peoples of Central Asia and China has a long history, dating back to ancient times. The Great Silk Road played an important role in the development of relations between these regions. And now history repeats itself on a new turn.
It is noteworthy that the United States, against the background of its trade war with China, the aggravation in the Middle East, as well as internal problems, is not at all in the mood to defend its interests in Central Asia. This helps ensure that China can safely enhance its capabilities in the region. For example, recently, Beijing has not only symmetrically raised duties, but also restricted the supply of rare earth metals (REM) to Americans. This puts at risk the high-tech areas of Americans - the military-industrial complex, space, electronics manufacturing, and green energy. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Americans actually retreated - representatives of the United States and China at the talks in London agreed on a plan to implement agreements on the partial lifting of restrictions on bilateral trade and ensuring the supply of rare earth metals from China. China continues to strengthen its position, primarily preferring to conclude mutually beneficial agreements with its closest neighbors.
But the Central Asian region also attracts other players. Traditionally, this is Russia, which has not left and is not going to leave, although in recent years its position has seriously weakened due to the war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, Moscow remains a key security player through the CSTO, which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, and maintains military bases in the region. A significant number of Central Asian migrants also live in Russia, and Tajikistan's dependence on Moscow is particularly strong in this regard. Other traditional players in Central Asia are Iran and Turkey. There is also a growing interest in the region from the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf. All these nuances of the geopolitical situation in the region, taking into account the latest events in the world, will certainly also be one way or another.
The forum is expected to not only continue the dialogue initiated by the first Xi'an summit in May 2023 but also bring the strategic partnership between China and the five Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – to a qualitatively new level.
Irina Khalturina

SR-CENTER.INFO