Format of the Future: The South Caucasus and Potential Institutionalization of Dialogue with China

In recent decades, China has actively developed multilateral cooperation formats with various regions of the world. The China-Arab Forum, China-CELAC Forum (Latin America), the "China-Central Asia" format, dialogue with ASEAN, China-Africa Forum — all these platforms have become established mechanisms for implementing Chinese geopolitical and economic interests. However, against the backdrop of this active institutionalization of international relations, the absence of a separate format for interaction with the South Caucasus states raises a legitimate question: why is Beijing not rushing to create a "China-South Caucasus" forum?
The South Caucasus has traditionally been an area where interests of several major powers intersect. Russia views the region as part of its "near abroad" and a sphere of special interests. Turkey has deep historical, cultural, and economic ties with the region, especially with Azerbaijan. Iran also actively defends its positions and shares borders with Armenia and Azerbaijan. The European Union and the United States have been seeking to strengthen their influence for decades, particularly in Georgia.
Under these conditions, China, faithful to its principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other states, avoids actions that could be perceived as challenging the established balance of power.
One of the main problems in the region is the complex political relations between the South Caucasus countries and unresolved territorial conflicts. The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, despite its military resolution in 2020, continues to be a source of tension. Georgian-Russian contradictions regarding the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the absence of diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey — all this creates a complex knot of contradictions.
"The complex political relations between the South Caucasus countries, especially between Armenia and Azerbaijan, may create certain challenges for the full participation of the Republic of Armenia, which has not yet fulfilled its obligations to unblock communications through Zangezur," analytical materials note.
China carefully avoids involvement in regional contradictions and strives to maintain balanced relations with all parties.
With its population of about 17 million people, the South Caucasus represents a relatively small market. The volume of trade with these countries is significantly inferior to China's interaction with the Arab world, Africa, or ASEAN countries. The investment potential of the region is also limited compared to other priority areas of Chinese foreign policy.
Instead of creating a separate multilateral format, China has chosen a more pragmatic approach to interacting with the region.
Beijing prefers to build relationships with each South Caucasus country individually. This approach is already yielding results. In July 2023, China and Georgia published a joint statement on establishing a strategic partnership, after which the countries introduced a visa-free regime. In July 2024, a similar "Joint Declaration on Establishing Strategic Partnership" was signed between Azerbaijan and China, and today there is a visa-free regime between the countries.
China actively includes South Caucasus countries in its global initiatives: the "Belt and Road Initiative," the "17+1" format (China's cooperation with Central and Eastern European countries), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where regional countries have the status of dialogue partners.
For China, the South Caucasus is of interest primarily as part of the Middle Corridor, a transit route from China to Europe, which has gained particular significance in the context of geopolitical turbulence.
At present, the absence of a separate "China-South Caucasus" format is due to a complex of geopolitical, economic, and strategic factors. China prefers to interact with the countries of the region on a bilateral basis and through existing multilateral mechanisms, avoiding the politicization of cooperation and focusing on economic aspects.
However, the growing importance of the South Caucasus as a transit corridor within the framework of the "Belt and Road Initiative" and the expansion of Chinese economic presence in the region create prerequisites for the possible institutionalization of cooperation in the future. At the same time, it is important for the countries of the region not only to attract Chinese investments but also to ensure that these investments align with their national interests and contribute to sustainable economic development.
Ultimately, the South Caucasus remains an important, albeit not primary, direction of China's foreign policy. Beijing's approach is based on pragmatism: it prefers to gradually increase its economic presence without hasty institutionalization, which could be perceived as a challenge to traditional external players in the region. At the same time, China demonstrates flexibility in its diplomatic instruments and forms multilateral cooperation formats as strategic necessities arise. Thus, the formation of a separate "China-South Caucasus" forum remains a matter of time and expediency, depending on the growth of economic interests, political circumstances, and regional dynamics.
Gulnara Safarli

SR-CENTER.INFO