April 2025 - Global Gateway versus Belt and Road: A New Geopolitical Duel?

The rivalry between the European Union and the People's Republic of China in Eurasia is intensifying and reaching a new level of strategic competition. At the center of this contest lie transportation infrastructure, institutional influence, and strategic partnerships with Central Asian and South Caucasus states. The EU is advancing its Global Gateway initiative as an alternative to China's Belt and Road Strategy, emphasizing sustainability, transparency, and European values. China, in turn, is focusing on institutional consolidation of long-term presence and the concept of a "Community of Shared Destiny."
April 2025 emerged as a month of diplomatic escalation. Early April witnessed the EU-Central Asia Summit. Toward the end of April, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev conducted an official visit to Beijing, immediately followed by the arrival of EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas to Baku on April 25. The following day, April 26, saw a meeting of foreign ministers from China and Central Asian countries in Almaty.
For the first time in the communiqué of the "China-Central Asia" foreign ministers' meeting format, the creation of a "closer China-Central Asia community of shared destiny" was declared, incorporating Beijing's global initiatives: the "Community of Shared Destiny for Mankind" and the "Global Security Initiative."
While Beijing consolidates its position in Central Asia, Brussels is intensifying its activities in the South Caucasus. Immediately following Aliyev's visit to Beijing, the EU strengthened diplomatic contacts with Baku. Kallas's visit provided an opportunity to resume negotiations on a new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Azerbaijan.
Geopolitical-Situational Assessment of April 2025
Eurasian geopolitics is undergoing fundamental transformation. Traditional spheres of influence of major powers are being revised, while centers of competition are shifting to new regions. Particularly notable is the evolution of rivalry between the largest economic blocs for control over strategically important transportation corridors and energy routes.
China demonstrates a qualitatively new approach to engagement with Central Asian states. The creation of a specialized secretariat and regular high-level meetings indicate aspirations for long-term institutional presence. China's concept of a "community of shared destiny" is becoming not merely a diplomatic formula, but a practical instrument of integration.
Concurrently, sectoral cooperation mechanisms are being established—from transportation ministries to the agricultural sector. This multi-level partnership architecture creates a sustainable foundation for long-term influence. In response to Chinese influence in Central Asia, the European Union has begun intensifying its actions in the South Caucasus. The resumption of negotiations on key partnership agreements and substantial investments in the region's transportation infrastructure demonstrate the strategic importance of this direction.
European financial institutions are launching ambitious projects worth hundreds of millions of euros, focusing on creating alternative transportation routes. This enables the EU to maintain its position as the region's leading investor despite growing activity from other players.
The vulnerability of key transportation corridors compels Beijing to reconsider its priorities and strengthen attention to alternative routes through Central Asia. The commencement of railway project construction connecting China with Central Asian countries, after a quarter-century of negotiations, symbolizes strategic reorientation. Transportation route diversification is becoming a national security imperative.
Growing economic investments require adequate security measures from China. China is expanding cooperation in intelligence, law enforcement, and cybersecurity with Central Asian partners. China's emphasis on countering "color revolutions" and external interference reflects a comprehensive understanding of threats. Economic investments and security measures are becoming mutually reinforcing elements of a unified Chinese strategy. Naturally, large-scale infrastructure projects are accompanied by corresponding guarantees of their protection.
Modern competition in Eurasia is characterized by several fundamental features. Various regions are becoming zones of predominant influence for specific players, potentially leading to the formation of new geopolitical blocs. Success is determined not only by investment volume, but also by the capacity to create sustainable mechanisms of multilateral cooperation.
The established geopolitical configuration evidently requires China to integrate economic, transportation, energy, and security aspects into a unified strategy. Today, China recognizes the necessity and capability to respond rapidly to changes in the international situation and diversify risks, which is becoming a key competitive advantage.
The Eurasian space is transforming into an arena of complex multi-level competition, where traditional forms of influence yield to new instruments of "soft power" and economic integration. The final contours of this transformation are still emerging, but its impact on global geopolitics is already evident.
Gulnara Safarli

SR-CENTER.INFO