Middle Corridor and Gas Hub in Turkey

In a statement released on 27 August 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared that Kyiv will not endorse a revised agreement concerning the transit of Russian natural gas through the Ukrainian gas transportation system to the European Union. The transit agreement currently in force for Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine accounted for 15 billion m³ of the EU's total gas consumption of 295 billion m³ last year. This allowed Gazprom to retain its position as a significant player in the European gas market.

The existing contract is set to expire on 31 December 2024. Consequently, following this date, Russia will have effectively no capacity to transport gas to Europe, with the exception of the Turkish Stream pipeline. Furthermore, there is a possibility that the supply of gas may be disrupted at an earlier date due to the ongoing conflict in the Kursk region, which is the location of the Suja gas transit point to Ukraine.

Consequently, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov informed journalists that, in the event that Kyiv does not extend the gas transit agreement, Russia will utilise alternative routes. Furthermore, he highlighted the potential of the Turkish gas hub as an alternative.

"There are alternative routes and plans to create a hub in Turkey. This work is underway. However, such decisions by the Ukrainian side will have a significant impact on the interests of European consumers who still desire a guaranteed and affordable supply of Russian gas," Dmitry Peskov stated.

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the proposal to create the Turkish Gas Hub in October 2022. This project envisages the creation of a gas supply and pricing platform on the border with the EU, which could become an alternative to other gas pricing centres in Europe.

Gas supplies for the formation of the Turkish Gas Hub will be secured:
- Capacity of existing Russian gas pipelines (Turkish Stream and Blue Stream),
- Gas from other suppliers (Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkmenistan)
- gas from Turkish fields on the Black Sea shelf.
It was assumed that the hub could be located in the Thrace region in the European part of Turkey, tentatively in the area of Luleburgaz in the Kırklareli silt, where the string of the Turkish Stream IHP comes out. From there, the gas can be channeled through three pipelines:
- The southern one will go to Italy,
- The middle one will go to Bulgaria, Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia, Serbia and other countries,
- The northern one would go to Romania, Slovenia, Hungary and, in the long term, Germany.

In an earlier statement, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak asserted the strategic importance of the proposed Turkish gas hub, suggesting that its implementation could commence in 2024. He further stated that it is of great importance for Russia to diversify its export routes.

The initial plan was to construct the hub within a one-year period. It is estimated that the hub will have an export capacity of 40 billion cubic metres of natural gas per year. It is possible that additional volumes of Russian natural gas may be supplied to the Turkish gas hub via Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey via the existing Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP). Furthermore, deliveries are to be made via Blue Stream and Turkish Stream.

Consequently, Turkey will utilise the gas hub to establish itself as a pivotal energy hub, facilitating connectivity between the eastern and western regions, and fortifying its regional energy sector position. Indeed, the Turkish gas hub is an ideal component of the broader strategy for developing the Middle Corridor as a critical conduit for the transportation of strategic commodities to EU member states.

Turkey is becoming increasingly important as a country through which natural gas is transported. Consequently, on 1 September 2024, the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) commenced the supply of gas to Croatia. Croatia became the tenth country to receive Azerbaijani gas, following the precedent set by Turkey, Georgia, Italy, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Serbia and Slovenia. The delivery of Azerbaijani gas to Croatia ahead of the winter season through PPD and MET Group serves to reinforce Azerbaijan's role as a dependable energy partner and supplier of gas to Europe and Turkey, given its status as a transit country for gas.

In the future, the prerequisites for strengthening Turkey's role as a key gas hub in the Middle Corridor will be in place. Plans have been proposed for the construction of a Trans-Caspian pipeline beneath the Caspian Sea, to facilitate the further transit of Turkmen gas to Turkey and Europe via Azerbaijan and Georgia. These plans have the full backing of the European Union, which is prepared to provide the requisite funding for implementing the Trans-Caspian pipeline project. Before constructing the Trans-Caspian Pipeline, Turkmen gas supplies to the Turkish gas hub could be delivered via the SWAP system from Iran to Turkey.

The recent geopolitical developments have significantly elevated Turkey's importance as a pivotal transit nation for energy resources to the EU. Moreover, most Ankara's partners in the Eurasian region, including Russia, have expressed a keen interest in reinforcing this role.

Gulnara Safarli
Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey Strategic Partnership Information Support Centr e

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