A new era in Sino-Turkish relations: Economic Cooperation through the Middle Corridor

The history of Sino-Turkish relations is characterised by a long-standing and multifaceted interaction across a range of domains, including trade, culture and politics. In recent decades, China has been actively developing its One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative, which aims to create new global trade routes and strengthen economic ties between Asia, Europe and Africa. In this context, the Middle Corridor, a transport route through Central Asia, the Caucasus and Turkey, connecting China with Europe, is of particular importance.

For Turkey, participation in the Middle Corridor offers the opportunity to strengthen its position as a key transit hub in Eurasia. In turn, China views Turkey as an important partner capable of providing reliable and stable transport routes to Europe.

The historical context of Sino-Turkish relations

China and Turkey have historically maintained a robust trade and cultural relationship, spanning centuries. One of the most notable historical examples is the Great Silk Road, which facilitated communication between the East and West through Central Asia and Turkey. Furthermore, during the Ottoman period, Muslim pilgrimages, including those from China to the Ottoman-controlled cities of Mecca and Medina, played a significant role in strengthening the ties between the countries, which also facilitated relations between Turkey and China. The evolution of maritime exploration, coupled with the prevailing political instability, and the subsequent colonial expansion and the actual partition of Central Eurasia between the Russian and British empires, resulted in the disruption of overland communication between Turkey and China. The movement of people and goods along the Great Silk Road came to an end. Turkey's endeavours to engage with the Turkic and Muslim populations of Eurasia in a cultural and political capacity were met with a negative response from the European powers.

Conversely, Western countries have impeded China's economic and cultural influence on other countries by imposing restrictive agreements and impeding China's development. The Second World War and the subsequent occupation of vast territories in China by Japan also resulted in extensive devastation and a considerable loss of life.

Subsequently, the geopolitical confrontation between the USSR and the US after World War II also had an impact on Sino-Turkish relations. Following the proclamation of the People's Republic of China in 1949, diplomatic relations between Ankara and Beijing were terminated. Subsequently, both countries participated in the Korean War of 1950-53, although on opposing sides of the front. China, in conjunction with the USSR, provided support to North Korea, whereas Turkey, as part of the United Nations troops led by the United States, offered assistance to South Korea. Conversely, from the 1960s to the early 1970s, China constituted the principal external partner of the Enver Hoxha regime in Albania, a country with spiritual and historical ties to Turkey.

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1971, Sino-Turkish relations have developed primarily in the economic sphere. In the 1990s and 2000s, Turkey commenced a period of active engagement with China, pursuing the diversification of its economy and the attraction of foreign investment. The dynamic economic development of Turkey and China, coupled with their transition to an independent and sovereign foreign policy, also contributed to the commencement of a rapid rapprochement between the two countries and the growth of mutual trade.

Since the early 2010s, China has emerged as Turkey's most significant trading partner in the Asian region. Despite the persistence of certain political divergences, the volume of bilateral trade continues to expand. The Chinese "One Belt, One Road" initiative has provided a new impetus to this relationship, opening up opportunities for collaboration on major infrastructure projects. By 2022, the value of bilateral trade between Turkey and China had reached $38.55 billion, and in 2023, this figure had increased to $43.40 billion. Turkey exports a range of materials to China, including metal ores and scrap, fertilisers, construction materials, and agricultural products. In return, China exports a variety of goods to Turkey, including computer and household appliances, machinery and equipment, and rolled metal products.

The Middle Corridor: A Strategic Analysis of its Importance for China and Turkey
The Middle Corridor constitutes a significant component of the OBOR initiative, traversing Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. The Middle Corridor is designed to facilitate the revival of the historic Silk Road, which traverses a route from Turkey to the Caucasus, crosses the Caspian Sea, and ultimately extends to China via Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. This route provides an alternative to the more traditional sea routes that utilise the Suez Canal and Russian transit routes. The Middle Corridor's significance lies in its potential to reduce the time required to deliver goods from China to Europe, while simultaneously fostering new avenues for economic advancement in the countries traversed by the corridor.

The Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), is an international transport corridor that currently traverses China, Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea region, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and ultimately reaches Turkey and EU countries. In comparison to other corridors, it presents a potentially advantageous opportunity for China and the countries in the region.

Until recently, approximately 96% of the approximately 10 million containers travelling annually from China to Europe were transported by sea, with the remaining 4% transported mainly through Russia via the Trans-Siberian Railway, which is also known as the Northern Corridor.

The Middle Corridor initially presented a competitive challenge to the Northern Corridor. However, the Middle Corridor possessed several significant advantages. It was considerably faster and spanned a distance of 2,000 kilometres less than the Northern Corridor, connecting Europe and Asia. In the present context, the Middle Corridor has a competitive advantage of approximately five days over the Northern Corridor. Conversely, the transportation time along the Middle Corridor is 15 days less than that of the sea route. In addition, the Middle Corridor is more favourable in terms of climatic conditions in comparison to other corridors.

Since the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine, the utilisation of the Northern Corridor has declined by 50%. Conversely, the previously insignificant container transportation volumes along the Middle Corridor have increased markedly, reaching 2% of the total cargo volumes between China and Europe. However, this represents merely the beginning of the route's potential for further development. The security of the southern route through the Suez Canal is also called into question by the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and the political unrest in Israel. As a result, it is anticipated that a significant proportion of the cargo that has traditionally been transported by sea will be redirected to the Middle Corridor.

In light of the evolving global trade landscape, the Middle Corridor is emerging as a geopolitically and economically significant region. The realisation of this corridor will serve to strengthen Turkey's economic and political integration, particularly in relation to Turkic states in Central Asia. As a result of growing interest in the Middle Corridor due to security and efficiency issues, it is important to consider Turkey's initiatives in this direction as a strategic bridge between Asia and Europe. The synergy that the Middle Corridor will create with the Belt and Road Initiative has the potential to result in a significant transformation in the structure of trade routes. The establishment of this corridor serves to reinforce Turkey's geopolitical standing, both in terms of its role as a transit country and as a pivotal contributor to regional economic integration. Consequently, Turkey views the Middle Corridor as a means of enhancing its status as a pivotal transit node at the confluence of Europe and Asia. In order to achieve this, Turkey is already engaged in the process of modernising its transport infrastructure, including ports, railways and highways, with the involvement of Chinese investors, in order to ensure the effective functioning of the corridor.

The optimal outcome of the Middle Corridor's development would be the establishment of regular communication and the redirection of the primary cargo traffic not only between China and Turkey, but also between China and Europe along the most direct route. This would facilitate the dynamic development of the South Caucasus and Central Asian states. This encompasses Turkic countries, which are ethnically and spiritually aligned with Turkey on the one hand and have economic and cultural ties with China on the other.

The "One Belt, One Road" initiative has the potential to serve as an economic and geopolitical axis between China and Turkey, addressing a multitude of global challenges. These include environmental and climate change concerns, as well as the prevention of conflicts and promotion of world peace.

This paper examines the potential for Sino-Turkish cooperation in the context of the Middle Corridor.

In recent years, there has been a notable intensification of collaboration between China and Turkey in the implementation of projects pertaining to the Middle Corridor. Chinese companies are engaged in a programme of active investment in infrastructure projects in Turkey, including the construction of railways, ports and logistics centres. One such project is the high-speed railway between Ankara and Istanbul, which was constructed with the assistance of Chinese technology and investment.

China provides support for significant infrastructure projects in Turkey. Notably, Chinese companies hold a majority stake in two major infrastructure projects in Istanbul: the Kumport container terminal (65%) and the Sultan Selim Yavuz Bridge (51%).

In 2019, the construction project of the Honotlu Thermal Power Plant in Adana, with Chinese assistance, commenced. This constituted the largest Chinese investment in Turkey at the time, with a total value of USD 1.7 billion. This TPP will undoubtedly prove to be the most significant project for the development of eastern Turkey. The project encompasses not only the construction of the Honotlu power plant, but also the development of ports designed specifically for the transportation of coal. The initial phase of the project has already been completed. Upon completion of the project, the power plant will have a capacity of 1320 MW, generating 9 billion kilowatt hours per year. This is equivalent to approximately 3% of Turkey's total electricity production. Additionally, China is anticipated to contribute to the advancement of nuclear energy in Turkey, notably in the construction of the nation's third nuclear power plant.

The Middle Corridor's logistical potential to significantly reduce the time it takes to deliver goods from China to Europe makes it an attractive proposition for both parties. China views Turkey as a pivotal partner in the realisation of its global OBOR strategy, while Turkey, in turn, secures access to new investments and technologies, thereby facilitating the advancement of its economy. Furthermore, the rising volume of trade between China and Turkey is stimulating the growth of bilateral economic relations. The export profile of Turkey to China encompasses a range of agricultural products, minerals and light industrial goods, while the import profile of China to Turkey is characterised by a preponderance of industrial goods, electronics and machinery.

The following section will address the challenges and risks associated with the proposed cooperation

Despite positive developments, China-Turkey cooperation in the Middle Corridor faces a number of challenges and risks. First, geopolitical instability in the region could affect the implementation of infrastructure projects. Third-country interference could hamper the coordination and financing of projects. Provoking internal instability in the countries of the Middle Corridor and fuelling separatism and extremism could be particularly dangerous. Second, internal political and economic problems in both China and Turkey could affect the implementation of joint projects. A possible economic recession or slowdown in economic growth, sanctions and internal political conflicts could hinder the fulfilment of infrastructure project commitments and create additional risks. The uneven development of different regions within the Middle Corridor countries, including both Turkey and China, remains an important issue. In Turkey, for example, economic development is 'shifting west'. Population and investment are also moving there. This has already led to the hypertrophic development of the western megacity of Istanbul and its nearest economic centres (Bursa, Izmir), as well as the western coastal areas, and to some stagnation in the eastern regions, where there are problems of unemployment and poor infrastructure development. China's economic development has traditionally been concentrated in the eastern coastal regions, where most of the country's population and industrial capacity are located. In recent decades, there has been a migration of labour and human resources from the less populated western areas to these economically developed regions. The 'One Belt, One Road' initiative is also primarily focused on the development of China's western regions, particularly the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The slow development of the region, coupled with the lag in the development of regional infrastructure, may impede the implementation of large-scale projects to develop the Middle Corridor. Furthermore, it is imperative to consider the environmental and social risks associated with the implementation of large infrastructure projects. The construction of new transport routes and logistics centres may have a detrimental impact on the environment and may give rise to discontent among the local population.

Looking to the future and developing the relationship

Notwithstanding the existing challenges, the outlook for the further deepening of Sino-Turkish relations remains positive. The Middle Corridor represents a strategically significant undertaking that has the potential to serve as a foundation for the further consolidation of the bilateral partnership between the two countries. Further collaboration in domains such as the digital economy, green energy and innovation is a prospective avenue for future exploration.

At the present time, China is a world leader in the digitalisation of all aspects of life. China's experience is being actively implemented by other countries, including Central Asian countries, where digitalisation is most actively implemented in Kazakhstan, which is closely linked ethnically and culturally to Turkey. It is conceivable that in the future a 'digital silk road' may be formed and IT technologies developed, which would facilitate the optimal exchange of goods and services between countries, the creation of regional 'silicon valleys', as well as joint intellectual work of Eurasian countries for their common good.

Turkey is actively promoting its "New Silk Road" strategy, which aims to develop infrastructure and create conditions for increasing trade with Asia. China, in turn, views Turkey as a crucial partner in its global OBOR strategy, capable of guaranteeing the stability and sustainability of emerging trade routes. The joint efforts of Turkey and China will prove beneficial to the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, ensuring their coordinated and dynamic development and improvement of infrastructure. Furthermore, it will facilitate the resolution of acute regional issues, including the sharing of water and other resources, and enable the countries to combat irreversible climate change.

Turkey and China are in favour of the complete elimination of any disputes and conflicts between the states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia, including those about territorial matters. This stance is based on the recognition of the unconditional sovereignty of these countries and their territorial integrity. It is important to acknowledge that certain external actors have deliberately sought to capitalise on territorial disputes to impede communication and hinder development in the region.

The relationship between China and Turkey is undergoing a period of growth, with the Middle Corridor representing a significant factor in this development. In light of the evolving global landscape and the complexities of the One Belt, One Road initiative, there is a clear opportunity for Turkey and China to reinforce their partnership, thereby creating new economic prospects and stability in the region. The interaction between the two countries within the Middle Corridor is of great strategic importance, both in terms of their respective national interests and in regard to the states of Central Asia and the South Caucasus.


Elbrus Mamedov,
Director of the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey Strategic Partnership Information Support Centre

SR-CENTER.INFO