Azerbaijan is becoming a focal point for a number of transportation routes

The visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Azerbaijan on 18-19 August was of considerable significance. The visit occurs at a challenging juncture for Russia, marked by the escalation of the conflict with Ukraine. The war, which commenced on 24 February 2022, has advanced into internationally recognised Russian territory, with Ukrainian troops advancing towards the Kursk region. Moreover, the site in question is situated near the town of Suja, which serves as the sole remaining conduit for the Russian Federation's natural gas exports to Europe. It is noteworthy that, despite the military action, the pumping of gas through Suja has not ceased.

It is pertinent to recall that shortly before the Russian Federation commenced its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, undertook a visit to Moscow. At that time, although there was already a perceptible shift towards conflict on the international stage, Russia was not yet in a position of complete international isolation. All infrastructure and transit projects involving its participation were operational, with the Nord Stream gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea representing a notable example. Discussions were held regarding the implementation of an additional gas pipeline project, namely the Power of Siberia-2, to supply Russian gas to China. Concurrently, the "Northern route" for the transit of goods and cargo from China to Europe via Russia via the Trans-Siberian Railway was undergoing active development.

On this day, 22 February 2022, Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev signed the Moscow Declaration, which formalised the allied cooperation between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation. Furthermore, the declaration outlined that Russia and Azerbaijan would refrain from engaging in any economic activities that could potentially harm the interests of the other party, either directly or indirectly.
Two and a half years have elapsed since that time. Russia is currently engaged in a protracted military conflict in Ukraine and has lost a significant portion of its European energy markets, including as a result of actions that have undermined the Nord Stream pipeline. Transit from China through Russia has decreased, while the Middle Corridor, which bypasses Russia through Central Asia and the South Caucasus, has become a highly sought-after alternative. Furthermore, it has recently come to light that the construction of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline to China via Mongolia has been postponed.

In light of these circumstances, Azerbaijan's value as a friendly neighbouring state and a reliable partner for Russia has significantly increased. In the period preceding Vladimir Putin's visit to Baku, experts posited that Russia might be amenable to supplying its natural gas to Europe via Azerbaijan, leveraging the capabilities of the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline, in light of the potential for disruption in gas transit through Ukraine. Furthermore, Azerbaijan represents a potential partner for Russia in the development of the North-South transit corridor to Iran and India.

The visit of Vladimir Putin to Azerbaijan was, for the most part, a success. It was primarily aimed at overcoming the geopolitical and economic isolation of Russia at a critical moment of the Ukrainian war.

As a consequence of the visit, a number of significant agreements were concluded. These included agreements about food safety, plant quarantine and protection, healthcare, medical education and science, labour inspection and climate change, as well as a memorandum of understanding between the Russian Direct Investment Fund and the Azerbaijani Export and Investment Promotion Agency. A contract was signed between Russia's Transmashholding and the Baku Metro for the production of carriages.

It is of particular significance that consensus was achieved on the matter of the North-South corridor through Azerbaijan. Furthermore, it appears that the Russian government is exerting pressure on Iran to expedite the completion of the Resht-Astara railway. This will facilitate direct railway access for the Russian Federation via Azerbaijan and Iran to the Indian Ocean.

At a press conference with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on 19 August 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted the strategic importance of the North-South International Transport Corridor for Azerbaijan and Russia, particularly in terms of access to the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, for the Russian Federation, the North-South project will constitute an international transport corridor devoid of any US military bases.

It is also worth noting the joint plans that have been made for the implementation of the North-South project. "This will facilitate our access to the Indian Ocean and enable the utilisation of these routes for mutual benefit," the Russian president stated.

Additionally, an agreement was reached concerning the expansion of Gazprom's strategic collaboration with Azerbaijan's SOCAR. A new project on the Caspian shelf for joint implementation was announced to be under consideration by Russia and Azerbaijan. Additionally, the creation of tankers for the transportation of oil products has commenced.

Consequently, Azerbaijan has become a pivotal node in the network of major trans-Eurasian routes, including the Middle Corridor and the North-South Corridor. Russia, which is already utilising the infrastructure of the Middle Corridor to address its challenges, is highly invested in this situation. In particular, Russia is interested in direct cargo deliveries to Turkey via the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway line, which it attempted to prevent from being constructed a decade ago.

Azerbaijan has also expressed its intention to become a member of the BRICS group. In light of Russia's geopolitical motivations, namely the overcoming of its geopolitical isolation, the intention of Azerbaijan to join BRICS was met with a favourable response in Moscow.

Gulnara Safarli
Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey Strategic Partnership Information Support Centre

SR-CENTER.INFO