Stability or tension? The future of US-China relations under Trump

The Centre for China and Globalisation (CCG), a non-governmental think tank based in Beijing and co-authored by Dr Henry Huiyao Wang, Dr Mabel Lu Miao and a team of experts, published a report entitled 'How to Meet Trump Era's Challenges and Opportunities' on 20 November 2024.

The report's primary focus is on the potential trajectory of US-China relations in the context of Donald Trump's re-election as US President in 2024. The foreword to the report observes that "Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 election signifies a notable shift in the US away from globalisation and towards traditionalism. His policies will undoubtedly exert a considerable influence on relations with China. Key areas of concern include revising tariff policy, resolving international conflicts and adopting a pragmatic approach to Taiwan."

The report dedicated a considerable amount of space to forecasting the potential direction of Trump's China policy.
1.Tariff policy will serve as a principal instrument for exerting pressure on China, including the imposition of elevated import duties. 2.The possibility of trade negotiations remains, particularly with regard to the protection of intellectual property and investment. 3.Trump has expressed a desire for China to play a role in resolving global conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine crisis. 4. A pragmatic approach to the Taiwan issue is likely to prevent further regional tensions.

The report emphasises that pragmatism and a willingness to engage in dialogue remain crucial for stabilising relations and identifying mutually beneficial solutions in the context of the evolving geopolitical landscape. As indicated in the report, the principal challenges that remain are those of trade tensions, security in the Asia-Pacific region and cooperation in addressing global issues such as climate change and international conflicts.

The CCG's recommendations, adapted for our reader below, reflect several key aspects of Chinese foreign policy, including the country's aspirations, concerns, and attempts to strike a balance in its relationship with the United States. The recommendations reflect China's aspiration to cultivate a stable and harmonious relationship with the United States, founded upon respect and mutual interests. They also emphasise the necessity to overcome existing barriers and to employ diplomatic strategies that are prudent and oriented towards long-term collaboration. (To ensure accuracy, it is recommended that the report be consulted directly to avoid any potential misinterpretation.)

The authors of the report observe that China is striving to establish a sustainable and mutually beneficial relationship with the United States, particularly in the realms of cultural exchange, academic collaboration, and interpersonal interaction. It is anticipated that these endeavours will assist in the reduction of mutual misunderstandings and the fortification of bilateral friendship. Furthermore, the authors of the report highlight the necessity to overcome the myths and stereotypes that may emerge from the context of news and international rhetoric, particularly in the context of ongoing political tensions. China perceives a necessity for individuals in both countries to gain a more comprehensive understanding of each other's cultural, historical, and political nuances.

Furthermore, the authors of the report posit that China is cognizant of the fact that the United States views it as a competitive force on the global stage. This perception is linked to concerns about security, influence in international organizations, and strategic markets. It is imperative that diplomatic efforts exercise caution to circumvent direct conflict and capitalise on opportunities for collaboration.

Furthermore, the report indicates that existing tensions between China and the United States, particularly in light of past decisions such as the termination of exchange programs, have resulted in significant obstacles to direct communication between the people and governments of the two countries. It is of the utmost importance to overcome these difficulties in order to facilitate the normalisation of bilateral relations. China places a significant emphasis on the enhancement of youth exchanges, which serves as a long-term strategy to foster a more favourable global perception of China, particularly in the United States.

China frequently adheres to a philosophy of moderation, which is reflected in its foreign policy through the utilisation of gradualist tactics, eschewing abrupt actions to prevent the provocation of robust responses. This also reflects the Chinese concept of 'smooth' engagement, known as Taiji (harmony), which emphasises the importance of maintaining equilibrium and employing non-violent methods of conflict resolution.

The authors highlight China's commitment to establishing robust foundations for future generations, encompassing educational initiatives and academic exchange. This is consistent with China's philosophical approach of patience and continuous development, which prioritises long-term harmony over immediate outcomes. China has demonstrated a willingness to improve relations with the United States through a conciliatory approach, eschewing confrontational politics in favour of seeking solutions through dialogue and mutual understanding. This is in accordance with the principle of respect for partners.

CCG Recommendations
(In the event of a discrepancy in the interpretation or translation of individual paragraphs of the recommendations due to the use of text abbreviations, the original CCG report, which will be referenced at the conclusion of the article, should be consulted as a primary source.):

The relationship between China and the United States is one of the most significant and complex in the world, based on a foundation of shared responsibilities and overlapping interests. It is imperative that they collaborate in order to address the global challenges that they are currently facing, including the war in Ukraine, the instability that is occurring in the Middle East, climate change, and the governance of AI. Notwithstanding the uncertain future of this relationship, collaborative endeavours can assist in circumventing the Thucydides trap and establishing mutually beneficial models of engagement.

It is recommended that efforts be concentrated on enhancing cooperation, fostering mutual respect, managing differences, and preventing conflict escalation.

1)China and the United States have the potential to enhance their diplomatic discourse on pivotal global matters, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the Israeli-Palestinian standoff, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Such collaboration is consistent with Trump's objective of enhancing his reputation as a "President of peace."

China, with its considerable influence in Russia and the Middle East, has the potential to play an instrumental role in facilitating peace initiatives with the United States. Such endeavours, when coupled with the backing of the BRICS countries, can serve to establish a robust basis for collaborative efforts in the realm of international security.

On the Korean Peninsula, tensions remain elevated, and relations between North and South Korea continue to deteriorate. It is imperative that urgent discussions be held with all relevant parties to prevent further escalation. In light of Trump's previous interactions with Kim Jong-un, including the 2018-2019 visit to the DMZ, as well as China's endeavours to establish avenues for dialogue, the re-establishment of quadrilateral discussions between China, the US, North and South Korea is a potential outcome. Such discussions could culminate in the formulation of a novel peace treaty, which might serve to reinforce regional stability.

(2) A visit by Trump to China at an opportune moment could represent a significant stride towards the formulation of a strategic plan for the subsequent phase of bilateral relations.

Despite his anti-communist beliefs, President Nixon initiated rapprochement with China in the 1970s with the objective of easing tensions with the Soviet Union and ending the Vietnam War. His visit to China in 1972, which resulted in the signing of the Shanghai Communiqué, constituted a pivotal moment in the evolution of relations between the two countries.

Upon returning to power, Trump could adopt a comparable strategy and undertake a pragmatic reassessment of foreign policy priorities. Following the formation of a new administration, high-level dialogues between the United States and China could facilitate the identification of common goals and red lines for each side. A visit by Trump to China could prove instrumental in establishing a new consensus and reinforcing diplomatic ties.

(3) A new consensus on the Taiwan issue between China and the United States could be reached through the issuance of a joint statement. Such a statement would serve to clarify the respective positions of both parties and thereby mitigate the risks of misunderstanding.

The status of Taiwan remains a pivotal point of contention in cross-strait relations. A joint statement could serve to reaffirm the United States' commitment to the "one China" policy, building upon the principles set forth in the three joint communiqué documents and calling for a peaceful resolution of differences. Such an approach would serve to mitigate tensions and simultaneously reinforce the foundations for future interactions. Concurrently, the two parties could direct their attention to matters pertaining to trade, technology, and security, with the objective of identifying shared interests, resolving discrepancies, and establishing more constructive collaborative objectives.

(4) China and the United States could consider ways to enhance economic and trade collaboration by capitalising on China's manufacturing capabilities to mitigate the potential consequences of a disruption in economic ties.

Should the Trump administration reiterate its stance on tariffs, China may be amenable to offering pragmatic cooperation with a view to reducing these tariffs and supporting the revival of US manufacturing. It is possible that investment and technological cooperation from China could facilitate the creation of jobs in the United States and contribute to the revitalisation of the US economy. China's manufacturing capacity could serve to complement U.S. supply chains, thereby facilitating a mutually beneficial cooperative relationship. Furthermore, negotiations on the second phase of the trade agreement could be reinitiated and advanced.

Trump's deal-oriented approach creates a conducive environment for pragmatic negotiations, free from the excessive ideological constraints that have previously hindered progress. Such an approach could facilitate deeper cooperation, lower tariffs, enhanced technological exchange and strengthened economic ties on both sides. Such an outcome could foster more stable trade relations and long-term economic growth for both countries.

(5) China and the United States could enhance their collaboration in infrastructure development and identify potential avenues for joint initiatives, including third-party market involvement.

The United States is confronted with a pressing need for infrastructure modernisation, encompassing transport, energy and communications. During his first term in office, President Trump put forth infrastructure plans that were estimated to cost approximately $1 trillion, yet only $200 billion in federal investment was ultimately realised. In the 2024 campaign, he once again identified infrastructure development as a priority, thereby creating opportunities for collaboration with China.

China has developed sophisticated technology and expertise in infrastructure projects, as evidenced by its reconstruction of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge. Such joint efforts could include the establishment of mechanisms designed to attract investment and facilitate the implementation of bilateral infrastructure projects. Furthermore, the alignment of initiatives such as China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the U.S. Build Back Better World (B3W) and the EU's Global Gateway plan is a potential avenue for collaboration. Cooperation in infrastructure in third markets, especially in developing countries, can also yield substantial benefits, namely the facilitation of joint projects and the enhancement of both countries' standing in the international arena.

(6) China can reinforce multilateral financial collaboration through institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the World Bank to support significant infrastructure initiatives.

The lack of adequate financing and the existence of supply-demand imbalances continue to represent significant obstacles to the advancement of international development finance. The reduction in infrastructure investment, particularly in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, underscores the necessity for enhanced collaboration among multilateral development banks. China and the United States can facilitate this process by leveraging the potential of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the World Bank to finance joint infrastructure initiatives.
The establishment of an international infrastructure lending consortium comprising major multilateral banks (ADB, EBRD, EIB, IDB, AfDB and others) would facilitate the introduction of a standardised and transparent system for financing, contracts and trade. Such a consortium could serve to mobilise states and corporations, facilitate infrastructure development, and promote environmentally sustainable growth in developing countries.

(7) China and the United States could adopt a more flexible approach to regulating internet and technology companies on both sides.

China could facilitate greater market access for US internet giants such as Google, X (Twitter) and Facebook, while the US could consider lifting restrictions on Chinese companies, including TikTok and Huawei. Such an arrangement would create opportunities for Chinese enterprises in the fields of new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence to expand investment in the US market. Furthermore, the lifting of sanctions on companies and individuals on both sides could help to avoid further economic decoupling and strengthen exchanges and mutual trust between the countries.

(8) China can enhance data security legislation by integrating the tenets of the Global Data Security Initiative into its domestic legislation and international agreements.

The accelerated growth of the digital economy has positioned data management as a pivotal aspect of global competition. China is actively engaged in the negotiation of agreements such as the Digital Economy Partnership (DEPA) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP), where data management is a central issue. During the course of negotiations, China may wish to pursue the inclusion of principles that prohibit governments from requiring the transfer of data abroad. This would be in alignment with the 'Global Data Security Initiative' presented by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The enshrinement of such norms in international agreements and their integration into domestic law would create legal obligations with international force. This approach would serve to strengthen China's position as a responsible participant in the global digital economy, increase confidence in its intentions, and provide a reasoned defence against criticism emanating from the US in particular.
Furthermore, it would promote the standardisation of cross-border data management, which would create a basis for long-term cooperation in the digital sphere.

(9) There is a potential for enhanced communication and collaboration between China and the United States on matters pertaining to fentanyl and other drug-related concerns.

In 2023, China and the United States resumed collaborative efforts to combat the illicit trafficking of fentanyl and other synthetic opioids. The re-establishment of engagement through the counter-narcotics working group facilitated constructive exchanges in 2024. It is recommended that both countries continue to deepen their cooperation through regular high-level exchanges, improving law enforcement coordination, intelligence sharing, and joint efforts to combat cross-border drug trafficking. This will help to reduce the flow of drugs and improve security.

(10) It may be beneficial for China and the United States to consider the establishment of a Chinese consulate in Houston and a U.S. consulate in Chengdu.

The closure of the Chinese consulates in Houston and the U.S. consulate in Chengdu has had significant economic and cultural ramifications, disrupting trade relations and exchanges, and heightening market uncertainty. The re-establishment of these consulates has the potential to reinforce bilateral relations, facilitate business interactions, and enhance people-to-people ties. It is of significant importance for both parties to consider the reopening of consulates in these pivotal regions, given their strategic relevance to the economies and trade networks of both countries.

(11) China could implement measures to stimulate the recovery of the tourism industry, including the introduction of a visa-free policy for US citizens, similar to the free policy for EU member states.

Since 2023, China has been implementing measures to streamline the visa process, which has resulted in a notable increase in international tourist arrivals. China has already implemented a visa-free transit policy for citizens of 54 countries and may extend this to include US youth and participants in educational programmes, which would serve to reinforce cultural ties and tourism. In order to enhance cultural exchange and expand the tourism industry, China may consider implementing a visa-free entry policy for U.S. citizens, particularly those under the age of 21, in addition to individuals participating in exchange programs and educational initiatives.

(12) It is imperative that negotiations be conducted with the objective of consolidating the vision of the San Francisco Summit and utilizing the initiative to extend an invitation to 50,000 young Americans to visit China for the purpose of engaging in exchange and training programmes. This initiative represents a crucial step in the effort to enhance mutual understanding and cooperation between the people of China and the United States.

Subsequent to the San Francisco Summit in November 2023, China and the United States reached an accord to intensify cultural exchanges, encompassing President Xi Jinping's initiative to extend invitations to 50,000 young Americans to China for exchange and training programmes over a five-year period. During the Trump administration, the two countries may continue this dialogue through the implementation of promotional campaigns and the establishment of collaborative initiatives with various organisations, with the objective of increasing the number of participants. Such an approach will assist in the consolidation of amicable relations between the two countries and the establishment of long-term connections. As President Xi Jinping has previously emphasised, the future of Sino-US relations depends on young people. It is therefore possible to strengthen the sustainable development of these ties through the strengthening of exchanges and cooperation at all levels, including at the subnational level.

(13) Efforts should be made to reinstate cultural exchanges such as the Fulbright programme and other educational initiatives, and to expand the China-US Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement in order to maintain robust personnel exchanges and academic cooperation.

In July 2020, an executive order issued by Trump brought about the termination of the Fulbright exchange programmes in mainland China and Hong Kong. This has resulted in a notable cooling of cultural and educational ties. The Fulbright Program, which has facilitated the exchange of scholars and students since 1979, has played an instrumental role in the strengthening of the relationship. Furthermore, the conclusion of the Agreement on Cooperation in Science and Technology in 1979 also facilitated the exchange of knowledge. The re-establishment of these programmes could serve to improve bilateral relations, encourage scientific cooperation and personnel exchanges, which would contribute to the long-term stabilisation of relations.

(14) It would be beneficial to consider opportunities to increase the number of journalists and foreign correspondents from each country, with the aim of strengthening bilateral relations and improving mutual understanding.

In 2020, during President Trump's first term, the United States designated five additional Chinese media outlets as "foreign missions" and imposed a limit of 100 Chinese nationals employed by these organizations within the United States. This resulted in the withdrawal of a number of Chinese journalists. In response, the Chinese government revoked the accreditation of several American journalists, demanding their departure from the country. The Biden administration has continued to witness a state of heightened tension with regard to the issue of journalist exchanges, with a notable absence of tangible progress towards a resolution. It is therefore recommended that the exchange of journalists between China and the United States be increased, with visa facilitation offered to members of reputable media outlets. This will help to improve mutual understanding and perception between the two countries.

(15) It would be beneficial to extend invitations to a greater number of US lawmakers, think tank experts and other influential personalities to visit and engage in exchanges in China. This could prove an effective means of fostering improved bilateral relations.

Following active interactions between Chinese and U.S. officials and the June 2023 summit of the two heads of state in San Francisco, there has been a notable recovery in people-to-people exchanges between the two countries, as evidenced by a considerable increase in the number of U.S. visitors to China. In discussions with U.S. counterparts, the CCG emphasised the importance of effectively managing Sino-U.S. relations and promoting bilateral exchanges. A considerable number of individuals have expressed a desire and willingness to visit China and engage with its government and citizens. These initiatives will facilitate the development of mutual understanding and trust between the people of the two countries, thereby fostering more productive diplomatic and economic relations.
(16) Efforts could be concentrated on enhancing engagement with U.S. policymakers and academics, with a view to developing a novel approach to Sino-U.S. relations.

The Trump administration has placed a premium on the primacy of U.S. interests, on the grounds that existing theories of international relations may impinge upon America's freedom of action. This has frequently resulted in instability and uncertainty in their foreign policy, creating further challenges for scholars and analysts in both China and the United States, which underscores the need for a revised approach to the coverage of Sino-US relations.

From GSR - In the Context of the Impact of Sino-American Relations on the Caucasus.

The future relations between China and the United States will have a significant impact on the Caucasus, both in economic and geopolitical terms. The Caucasus is a region of significant global economic and strategic interest, and shifts in US and Chinese policy may have a notable impact on its future development.

Modifications to the United States' tariff policy, in conjunction with the potential reinforcement of trade sanctions against China, may have an impact on the trans-Baltic and Eurasian routes that traverse the Caucasus. In the event of the Chinese market being subjected to more stringent sanctions, countries such as Azerbaijan and Georgia may encounter novel trade conditions, alterations to their logistics operations and potential transit challenges. Should Trump prioritise the reduction of tariffs and the expansion of economic cooperation with China, this could result in an increase in trade via transcontinental transport corridors, such as the Middle Corridor (passing through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey). It is evident that the Caucasus will assume a pivotal role in supporting these routes.
Should the United States increase the level of diplomatic dialogue with China, this could have an impact on the balance of power in the Caucasus region, particularly in relation to countries such as Azerbaijan and Georgia, which already have strong economic ties with China through the One Belt, One Road initiative. It is possible that China may increase its investments in energy and infrastructure projects in the Caucasus, which could contribute to greater peace and stability in the region.

The potential for heightened tensions over Taiwan and related security concerns may give rise to an increased competition for influence in Eurasia, which will undoubtedly have implications for the Caucasus region. China is engaged in a programme of active investment in energy and infrastructure in the Caucasus region, and changes in US policy may have an impact on these processes.

Furthermore, increased economic cooperation may have an impact on energy projects that traverse the Caucasus, including oil and gas pipelines. China is pursuing a policy of developing cultural and educational ties with Eurasian regions. A reduction in tensions between China and the United States may also result in the strengthening of cultural ties, including the provision of support for Chinese universities, cultural centres and educational programmes in the Caucasus. In conclusion, the political situation between China and the United States has the potential to exert a considerable influence on the Caucasus, particularly in the realms of trade, infrastructure, geopolitics and security. The Caucasus, situated at the nexus between Europe and Asia, will be at the epicentre of the geopolitical shifts precipitated by the intensifying interconnectivity between these two global actors.

Elbrus Mamedov

SR-CENTER.INFO