The Neo-Colonialism of Tariffs or a New Round of Global Trade Struggles Against the Global South?

Since taking the reins of power, the Trump administration has been on a relentless quest to push protectionist policies, a move that could really shake up global trade as we know it. The phrase 'tariff neo-colonialism' fits perfectly here, highlighting how the U.S. is using tariffs to hinder fair growth in countries across the Global South. These nations find themselves in a tough spot, having to either conform to U.S. standards or risk losing access to vital markets. As a result, the Global South is left scrambling to adapt—whether that means seeking out new markets, bolstering existing economic partnerships, forming fresh alliances, or crafting alternative political strategies.
The Trump administration's embrace of neo-mercantilism, which is set to roll out, can be seen as a particularly aggressive brand of trade protectionism. Throughout his first term, Trump unleashed a slew of such tactics, especially aimed at China, Europe, and other nations. The global fallout from this approach has been significant. It's evident that the main target of Trump's trade policies is the Global South, given how heavily these countries depend on exports to the U.S. market. The tariffs are likely to drive up the cost of goods, making them less competitive on the world stage. This situation is further complicated by the risk of a domino effect, where countries might retaliate, making matters even worse.
If the Global South and other nations that oppose Trump's tariff strategy start imposing retaliatory sanctions, we could be looking at trade wars. This might force a serious rethink of supply chain management, as countries scramble to find alternative markets or come up with ways to sidestep those tariffs. Meanwhile, the European Union has been on a mission to carve out strategic autonomy and diversify its economic relationships, especially in light of these developments.
The European Union has been seeking strategic autonomy and diversification of its economic ties in recent years, especially in the context of rising protectionism in the United States. The new US tariffs are likely to negatively impact European companies, particularly those in the automotive, energy, and technology sectors. The EU has previously experienced trade conflicts with the US, notably during Trump's initial presidency (steel and aluminum duties).
In response, the EU has been increasing ties with various regions, including Latin America (through a trade agreement with Mercosur), Africa (via the Global Gateway initiative, an alternative to China's BRI), and Asia (demonstrated by agreements with Vietnam, Indonesia, and India). Of particular note is the EU's growing involvement in BRICS+ as observers and investors, along with the expansion of its relations with Turkey and the Persian Gulf.
The European Union has become overly dependent on costly US liquefied natural gas (LNG), yet is simultaneously developing projects with Africa (gas from Algeria, hydrogen from Morocco) and the Persian Gulf. France and Germany have repeatedly criticized the US for economic selfishness (referring to the IRA law). Macron has been explicit about the need to reduce dependence on the US and to build ties with China and the Global South. However, the EU's reliance on the US market and its military alliance with NATO suggest that a complete disengagement may not be feasible in the near future. European elites are understandably apprehensive about a too-rapid rapprochement with China and the BRICS, as this could potentially provoke a negative reaction from Washington.
The US imposition of 'risks' on the EU regarding its reliability as a trading partner of the Global South also plays a role. Despite the predicted less-than-optimal future, the EU will find itself balancing between the US and the Global South, expanding economic ties without severing relations with Washington. The EU is expected to accelerate negotiations with Latin America, India, Southeast Asia, and Africa. It will endeavor to cultivate enhanced relations with China, albeit without undergoing a radical reorientation. Anticipated engagement in BRICS+ initiatives, albeit as an observer without formal accession, is a notable aspect of this strategy.
The potential ramifications of changes to US tariff policy, coupled with the prospect of increased trade sanctions against China, could impact logistics routes, including those traversing the Caucasus region.
The relationship between China and the US is one of the most significant and complex in the world, based on shared responsibilities and overlapping interests. Their cooperation is imperative in addressing global challenges. Despite the uncertain future of this relationship, Collaborative approaches can help overcome significant global challenges and establish mutually beneficial frameworks for engagement. Areas for potential collaboration include enhancing economic and trade relations, with China's substantial manufacturing sector offering a potential means of mitigating risks associated with a potential breakdown in global economic ties.
However, the present moment is characterized by tariff hegemonism, a tool employed to pressure China, despite China's consistent assertions of its desire to cultivate a stable and harmonious relationship with the US, founded on mutual respect and shared interests. China continues to offer pragmatic cooperation aimed at reducing these tariffs and supporting US manufacturing revitalization. The potential for investment and technological collaboration could contribute to job creation and economic revitalization in the United States. The complementarity of China's manufacturing capacity to US supply chains represents another potential benefit, ensuring mutually beneficial cooperation.
President Trump's approach, focused on negotiations and pragmatic solutions, has created an environment for dialogue unencumbered by excessive ideological preconceptions. This approach by both parties has the potential to enhance cooperation, reduce tariffs, facilitate technological exchange, and strengthen economic ties. It could promote more stable trade relations and long-term economic growth for both the US and China, and for countries in the Global South.
The implementation of Trump's economic protectionist policies has introduced significant uncertainty. Nevertheless, his transactional and pragmatic approach has the potential to generate new opportunities for cooperation and stabilization of relations with the Global South, including China. As the two largest global producers, China and the US share a responsibility to champion global peace and development, a sentiment echoed by numerous nations seeking a neutral stance.
The strategic concept of 'the common destiny of humankind' forms the foundation of Chinese President Xi Jinping's approach to addressing global challenges and achieving sustainable development goals. This approach is integral to building a community with a shared future. It implies a necessity for enhanced cultural and diplomatic understanding between nations, contributing to global stability and peace.
The Chinese President's call for a world where civilizations cooperate rather than compete, maintaining their own paths of modernization and identity, is a notable development in global politics. In this process of world order, China employs a strategic approach, leveraging economic, technological, and diplomatic channels. In contrast, the United States traditionally relies on methods of pressure and tariff blackmail. The US has historically sought to maintain a 'monopoly on world rules', viewing any alternative as a loss of global leadership. The US is unwilling to concede, perceiving this as a 'signal of weakness' to its allies (e.g., EU, Japan, Australia) and 'adversaries' (e.g., China, Russia, Iran).
The US erroneously believes that a new system would be more favorable for China than for itself. The question of why the United States cannot find domestic and international compromises has been increasingly raised. A thorough analysis reveals several key factors hindering US negotiation abilities. A critical factor is the domestic crisis manifesting as political chaos and societal divisions. Polarization has been identified as a key obstruction to constructive dialogue and effective decision-making, negatively impacting the United States' negotiation capabilities. It can be hypothesized that the implementation of Trump's tariff policy may be an attempt to address these challenges and ensure national endurance.
China positions itself as the most influential proponent of the multipolar order and defender of the Global South. President Xi Jinping has articulated a vision of 'common destiny and prosperity', presenting an alternative to traditional globalization characterized by competition and dominance. For Global South countries, this approach provides a significant basis for unification, predicated on principles of equality and respect for state sovereignty. The objective of "creating a just and prosperous world" resonates with a more equitable international relations framework, wherein all nations participate in decision-making.
Xi Jinping has articulated a foundational concept: the collective rise of the Global South is not merely an economic movement, but a cultural and political movement to achieve a multipolar world. This phenomenon has the potential to shift established global order rules, emphasizing collective responsibility, mutual respect, and common benefit.
The Chinese model of a multilateral approach to global security, based on mediation, economic support, and political dialogue, is endorsed by Global South countries. It implies a partnership to solve global problems, focusing on cooperation rather than hegemony, and creating a 'community with a shared future'.
Evidently, the Global South's response to 'Tariff Neocolonialism' will be increased accession to the BRICS cause—as full members, partner countries, or in the 'BRICS Plus' format. China's leadership has consistently emphasized its unwavering commitment to the Global South, regardless of the evolving international environment. This commitment is evident in China's intention to 'keep the Global South in its heart', implying support and assistance for regional partners, including active promotion of their interests on the global stage. This position reflects China's political and economic strategy of strengthening ties with countries historically disadvantaged by their unequal position in the global system.

Elbrus Mamedov - Head of the 'Great Silk Road - Centre for Expert Analysis' Centre
https://russian.news.cn/20250327/3a203355ea904688b2e3ad92bea0b3a4/c.html
http://russian.china.org.cn/international/txt/2025-03/27/content_117790073.htm

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