UK-Turkish relations in the context of Brexit: Prospects for Cooperation through the Middle Corridor

The acceleration of economic interaction and infrastructure improvement processes in Eurasian countries, situated along the route of the Middle Corridor from China to Europe, coincided with the United Kingdom's departure from the European Union, otherwise known as Brexit. It was evident to many experts that the United Kingdom would have to seek to compensate for its departure from the European Union by forging more intensive economic relations with other partners. This is particularly the case with those countries that have historically enjoyed amicable relations with the UK. Turkey occupies a distinctive position among these countries.

The relationship between the United Kingdom and Turkey is characterised by a lengthy and complex history, encompassing a range of collaborative endeavours across various domains, including economic, political and cultural spheres.

British-Turkish relations have a long and complex history, with roots that can be traced back to the era of the Ottoman Empire. Throughout various historical periods, London and Ankara have fostered close relations in the realms of trade, military collaboration, and political affairs. During the Cold War, Turkey was an important ally of the West, and subsequently, following the dissolution of the USSR, it played a pivotal role in maintaining stability on NATO's southern flank.

With regard to the European Union, the United Kingdom has frequently expressed support for Turkey's accession, perceiving it as an opportunity to reinforce Western influence in the region. The United Kingdom's exit from the European Union (Brexit) constituted the starting point for a dramatic change in London's foreign economic policy, compelling it to seek new partnerships and deepen existing ones. One such destination was once again Turkey, a country that plays an important role in Eurasia and the Middle East. Turkey became one of the key countries with which London sought to deepen relations.

The ramifications of the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union on its bilateral relations with Turkey

The United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union (EU) necessitated the conclusion of a new trade agreement between the UK and Turkey. This agreement was signed in December 2020. The agreement succeeded in preventing a significant decline in trade volumes and facilitated the creation of new avenues for collaboration in a context where London is no longer constrained by EU regulations. In the context of Brexit, Turkey has become not only an important trading partner for the UK, but also a strategic ally in matters of security and international politics. One significant area of focus is the enhancement of collaborative efforts in the domains of defence and counter-terrorism. Both states are confronted with a number of shared threats in the Middle East and North Africa, which necessitates the establishment of effective mechanisms for coordination and intelligence sharing.

It was therefore to be expected that relations between the UK and Turkey would improve following the latter's accession to the European Union. It is noteworthy that the following year, 2021, saw the UK emerge as the leading investor in Turkey, shortly after the UK's exit from the EU.

Additionally, in December 2020, approximately 10 months after the United Kingdom's departure from the European Union, a free trade agreement (FTA) was concluded between Turkey and the UK. To date, the United Kingdom has concluded trade agreements with a total of 62 countries since its departure from the European Union single market. The country's free trade agreement with Turkey constituted the fifth most significant FTA for London, ranking behind similar agreements with Japan, Canada, Switzerland and Norway.

Prior to the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union, the significance of commercial relations between Turkey and the UK was evident in the magnitude of trade. In 2019, the trade turnover between the two countries reached a value of $23.6 billion. The United Kingdom constituted Turkey's second most significant export market, trailing only the European Union. By the conclusion of 2023, the annual trade turnover between Turkey and the UK had reached $30 billion, with indications of a further increase. Moreover, the intensifying British-Turkish collaboration in the field of tourism is a notable indicator of the growing bilateral ties. In the wake of Brexit, there has been a notable shift in preference among British tourists, with an increasing number opting to visit Turkey instead of EU countries. In the present era, the United Kingdom occupies the third position in terms of the number of tourists visiting Turkey, preceded only by Russia and Germany and ahead of Poland and Iran, which is Turkey's neighbouring country.

The formation of the Middle Corridor and its significance

The Middle Corridor, which traverses Turkey, constitutes a pivotal component of China's Belt and Road Initiative, which aspires to establish novel transportation corridors between Asia and Europe. The Middle Corridor, which traverses the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus and Central Asia, provides an alternative to traditional maritime routes, with the potential to considerably reduce the time and cost of transporting goods.

From the perspective of Turkey, the Middle Corridor represents a strategically significant undertaking that offers the potential to reinforce its role as a regional hub. Ankara is engaged in a programme of infrastructure investment, modernising ports and railways to ensure the smooth movement of goods along this route.

Concurrently, the UK is also becoming increasingly significant in terms of both direct trade and economic relations with Turkey. From Turkey in the east, via the South Caucasus, the Caspian and Central Asia to China, the Middle Corridor is being established. This will provide the most rapid and dependable continental transit of goods and cargo, offering access to the most valuable raw materials of the Caspian Basin and Central Asia.

A review of the available literature indicates that there are over 500 companies with British capital in Kazakhstan alone. Amongst these, a number of well-known international enterprises have a presence in the country, including Royal Dutch Shell, Ernst & Young, BG, Shell, BAE Systems and others. British investors are also active in Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. British capital also enjoys a robust and promising position in Pakistan, which is engaged in expanding cooperation with Azerbaijan and the Central Asian states. It is therefore of great importance for Great Britain to have fast and convenient logistical access to Central Asia and the South Caucasus via the Middle Corridor. Moreover, such access is effectively facilitated through Turkey, which serves as a gateway to the region.

The relationship between the United Kingdom and Turkey in the context of the Middle Corridor

As a prominent global economic powerhouse, the United Kingdom is keen to explore the potential of new trade routes that could bolster its competitiveness on the international stage. The Middle Corridor represents a potential alternative route for the delivery of goods to Europe and the Middle East, which is of interest to London.

In the context of the United Kingdom's departure from the European Union, the country is seeking new economic opportunities. Participation in projects related to the development of the Middle Corridor could represent a significant step in this direction. Such collaboration with Turkey might encompass joint investment in infrastructure, the establishment of logistics hubs and the creation of new transportation corridors.

Conversely, Turkey is actively engaged in the formation of the Middle Corridor, which constitutes a component of the global Chinese initiative, "One Belt, One Road." This corridor, which connects China with Europe via Central Asia and the Caucasus, is of significant strategic importance for both Turkey and the UK. In the context of global changes and the challenges associated with Brexit, British-Turkish cooperation is assuming a new character.

The Brexit process has become an important catalyst for changes in relations between the United Kingdom and Turkey. These changes have opened up new opportunities for cooperation in a number of areas, including the Middle Corridor as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. It is also important to consider the geopolitical interests of other major players, such as China, which will influence the development of the Middle Corridor, as it is in fact the eastern gateway to this corridor. The outlook for the further strengthening of relations between Britain and Turkey remains favourable. In light of the global shifts in the world economy and politics, it is evident that collaboration between the two countries will prove pivotal in maintaining stability and fostering prosperity in the Eurasian region. In the context of global changes and challenges, it is anticipated that London and Ankara will reinforce their positions in the international arena, developing partnerships in the areas of infrastructure, logistics and security. The outlook for the further strengthening of relations remains favourable, and the successful collaboration within the Middle Corridor has the potential to become a pivotal factor in the formation of a new world order.

Elbrus Mamedov,
Director of the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey Strategic Partnership Information Support Centre

SR-CENTER.INFO