The "One Zone, One Road" initiative and the stabilisation of the Caucasus region

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), proposed by China in 2013, represents an ambitious project with the objective of establishing a new global trade and economic network. It comprises both the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. The principal objective of the BRI is to reinforce international economic ties, extend trade routes and stimulate global economic growth through the development of infrastructure, trade and investment.

The initiative places particular emphasis on regions of strategic importance, including the Caucasus. For China, the Caucasus represents not only economic but also geopolitical interest, functioning as a conduit between East and West.
The Caucasus region has a history of being the site of numerous conflicts and contradictions, largely due to its strategic location. The region is situated between Russia in the north and Iran and Turkey in the south, and serves as a significant transit route for trade and energy. The Caucasus region is of significant geopolitical importance due to its strategic location and role as a transit corridor for energy and trade routes. Key pipelines that link the West to the energy-rich Caspian Sea and Central Asia pass through the Caucasus.

The region is also distinguished by its ethnic and religious diversity, which frequently gives rise to internal and inter-state conflicts. In recent decades, the region has been affected by a number of armed conflicts, including the wars in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and other instances of heightened tension.

The economic potential of the Caucasus is considerable, yet its actualisation is constrained by political instability, a dearth of infrastructure and a lack of integration into global economic processes. In this context, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) represents a distinctive opportunity for economic growth and regional stabilisation.

This paper will examine the role of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the Caucasus region.

The Chinese initiative entails substantial financial commitments to the development of the Caucasus' infrastructure. The primary areas of focus are the construction and modernisation of transport corridors, energy routes, and the development of port infrastructure on the Black and Caspian Seas. To illustrate, the construction of railway routes and motorways connecting the Caucasus with China and Europe facilitates the region's integration into international trade networks.

Azerbaijan and Georgia have expressed interest in collaborating with China within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Azerbaijan, situated in a geopolitically advantageous location and endowed with substantial energy reserves, has emerged as a pivotal partner for China. This is evidenced by the latter's investments in Azerbaijani infrastructure projects, including the Alyat port and railway lines connecting Baku to Turkey via Georgia.

Georgia, for its part, views the BRI as an opportunity to establish itself as a significant transit hub between Europe and Asia. The country is engaged in the active development of its transport infrastructure, encompassing the modernisation of the ports of Poti and Batumi and the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway line.

Armenia, despite its limited resources and geopolitical challenges, is also eager to attract Chinese investment in the development of its infrastructure, particularly in the transport and energy sectors.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the stabilisation of the Caucasus
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has a favourable impact on the economic stability of the Caucasus. The development of infrastructure and increased investment have a positive impact on the regional economy, creating employment opportunities, raising living standards and improving the economic situation. Consequently, economic stability facilitates a reduction in conflict, as states and populations are motivated to cooperate and maintain peace.

Furthermore, China is engaged in conflict resolution in the Caucasus through diplomatic and economic channels. Economic cooperation between the countries of the region fosters interdependence, which serves to reduce the likelihood of new conflicts. Furthermore, the Chinese initiative facilitates cultural exchange and enhances inter-ethnic relations, thereby contributing to social stability.
China employs a strategy of soft power to advance its interests in the Caucasus, investing in areas such as education, culture and social programmes. This contributes to an enhanced perception of China among the Caucasus population and a strengthening of relations between the countries.

Potential challenges and risks
While the BRI has had a beneficial effect on the Caucasus, it is important to acknowledge the potential risks associated with this initiative. Firstly, the potential for political instability and internal conflicts in the region may present obstacles to the implementation of Chinese projects. Furthermore, competition between world powers for influence in the Caucasus also presents a threat to the successful development of BRI.

Furthermore, the environmental and social impact of large-scale infrastructure projects may prove problematic. The construction of new transport corridors and industrial facilities has the potential to result in the destruction of natural landscapes and disruption to the ecological balance of the region. It is also imperative to consider the social impacts of BRI, including population displacement and changes in traditional ways of life.

China may encounter resistance from local elites and populations if their interests are adversely affected. Furthermore, shifts in the political landscape of the Caucasus, such as the consolidation of authoritarian regimes or the resurgence of nationalism, have the potential to impede the project's implementation.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) represents a significant instrument for enhancing stability and fostering development in the Caucasus region. Investments in infrastructure, economic cooperation and cultural exchange have the potential to enhance economic conditions and mitigate tensions. Nevertheless, the successful implementation of the project necessitates the consideration of political, environmental and social risks, in addition to the active participation of all stakeholders.

It is possible that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will become a significant contributing factor to the long-term stability and prosperity of the Caucasus. However, this will require the input of both China and the countries in the region.

Gulnara Safarli
Azerbaijan-Georgia-Türkiye Strategic Partnership Information Support Centre

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