The South Caucasus and the green pause that will not become a reversal

In the contemporary global political landscape, there has emerged a prevailing discourse surrounding a perceived "cooling" of the green agenda. Following the period 2019–2021, during which the transformation of the climate appeared to be an inevitable consequence of development, reality intervened. In the midst of energy crises, inflation, geopolitical turbulence, and military conflicts, governments found themselves compelled to undertake a comprehensive reassessment of their priorities. The primary issues addressed were supply stability, energy prices and social resilience.

In the European Union, member states were compelled to revert to coal and nuclear power, and to provide subsidies for fossil fuels, in order to endure the impact of disruption to energy supplies from Russia. In the United States, administrations promoted ambitious climate initiatives, yet simultaneously the country attained record levels of oil and gas production. In this context, China is notable for its ongoing and consistent promotion of green energy, without concomitant reduction in investments in solar and wind generation. Beijing, a global leader in the field of renewable energy installation and equipment production, recognises the green sector as a strategic pillar for technological and industrial development. Concurrently, fossil fuels continue to play a pivotal role in ensuring energy stability and facilitating industrial growth. In China's model, the utilisation of coal and other conventional resources functions as a form of energy insurance, with a long-term strategic emphasis placed on the expansion of renewable energy sources and the consolidation of its position within the global green economy.

This phenomenon has the potential to create the impression of a retreat from the green agenda. However, upon closer inspection, this is not regression but rather a pause – a transition from an ideological phase to a pragmatic one. The notion of 'green energy' has evolved from a mere slogan to an indispensable necessity. The South Caucasus region exemplifies the rationale behind why this cessation will not culminate in a reversal. The Caspian Green Energy Corridor, initiated by Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, is not merely a symbolic declaration. Rather, it constitutes an infrastructural strategy. The 2025 memorandum on the establishment of a joint venture and the initiation of a feasibility study signify the commencement of practical implementation. The presence of underwater cables across the Caspian Sea and electricity transmission routes through Georgia to Europe is not merely a rhetorical device, it is a tangible factor that is reshaping the region's energy geography.

In April 2025, the three countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding to establish a joint venture for the project. The project has garnered significant international attention, as evidenced by its endorsement from the Asian Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The primary objective is to facilitate cross-border trade in green electricity between Central Asia and Azerbaijan, with subsequent exports to Europe. Azerbaijan has announced its intention to increase the production of renewable energy to 6.5 GW by 2030, which would account for over one-third of its total energy output.
The project encompasses the construction of submarine cables traversing the Caspian Sea, thereby facilitating the transmission of electricity produced in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to Azerbaijan. From there, the electricity will be transported through both existing and newly established land and sea routes to Europe. The Asian Development Bank has already advanced to the implementation stage, having announced an international tender for the feasibility study of the first phase of the Trans-Caspian Green Energy Corridor (Central Asia–Azerbaijan).

The initiative has been developed to create additional supply routes, thereby strengthening the resilience of the regional energy system. For Central Asian countries, it offers the opportunity to diversify their exports. The provision of institutional mechanisms for long-term cooperation in the entire Caspian region is a possibility. The establishment of a joint venture establishes a model that can be applied to other strategic sectors. The green corridor is complementary to the existing Southern Gas Corridor: while the gas route established the region as a hydrocarbon supplier, the green corridor establishes a second axis – electricity. The South Caucasus is gradually evolving into a dual energy hub, simultaneously embracing gas-based and renewable energy sources.
Georgia's role is of particular significance as a key transit country, connecting the Caspian region with Europe. The strategic importance of the Caspian Green Corridor is twofold - firstly, it would connect Georgia to both the Caspian and Black Seas, and secondly, it would link the country to the European energy system. Beyond its potential as a transit country, Georgia's capacity for solar and wind generation positions it as a producer of clean energy. Georgia's strategic importance as a pivotal node in the Southern Gas Corridor, facilitating the transportation of Azerbaijani gas to Europe, is well-documented. Furthermore, the country's involvement in green energy initiatives in collaboration with Azerbaijan, Romania, and Hungary, across the Black Sea, underscores its commitment to sustainable energy development. The strategic geographic location and well-developed infrastructure of Georgia render it a pivotal player in the energy transit nexus between the Caspian and European markets.

The establishment of the Caspian Green Energy Corridor has been identified as a key factor in the creation of new economic opportunities in the region. The export of green energy has the potential to generate foreign currency and stimulate the growth of a green economy in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. It is anticipated that both Azerbaijan and Georgia will accrue direct revenues from transit, in addition to accruing strategic advantages, including integration into the European energy system, enhanced energy security, and the attraction of foreign investment.
Furthermore, the optimisation of electricity transit can be conducted in accordance with time zones. Solar energy produced during peak hours in Central Asia can be utilised in Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Europe in the morning, when system demand rises. This approach is intended to assist in the balancing of peak loads and the enhancement of the resilience of the regional power grid.
Georgia's involvement in the project has the potential to expedite the adoption of green technologies and the modernisation of infrastructure. The proposed measures are designed to facilitate a transition to cleaner energy sources, thereby promoting both economic growth and environmental sustainability. However, effective involvement in this context necessitates active diplomacy, international financing, and adequate legal frameworks.

A critical aspect that highlights the relevance of Armenia's inclusion in regional green initiatives is the future of the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant. This facility, which is pivotal to Armenia's energy balance, has long been a subject of concern with regard to safety and the environment. Despite the United States' intention to allocate funds for modernisation and life extension purposes, the long-term outlook for the entire South Caucasus region remains uncertain. The potential closure of the plant in the future, whether for technical, political, or environmental reasons, poses a serious challenge to Armenia's energy stability. However, it simultaneously creates opportunities for an accelerated shift to renewable sources and integration into regional grids.
It is imperative to acknowledge the geologic instability characteristic of the South Caucasus, a region situated within a seismic zone of considerable intensity. This inherent geologic sensitivity renders large-scale infrastructure projects, most notably those involving nuclear facilities, inherently vulnerable. The future of Metsamor is no longer solely an internal Armenian issue; it carries regional significance. History has demonstrated that even the most technologically advanced nations are not immune to unforeseen disasters. The Fukushima incident in Japan served as a poignant reminder that even the most meticulous engineering calculations can be surpassed by the forces of nature. The gradual development of cross-border renewable networks and Armenia's integration into regional projects represent not merely a political step, but a long-term investment in collective security, resilience, and the South Caucasus's future.

It is important to note China's beneficial role in shaping the Caspian Green Energy Corridor. Presently, China is a global leader in the production of solar panels, wind turbines, and energy storage equipment. Its experience in large-scale domestic renewable deployment demonstrates the ability to combine energy security with accelerated infrastructure modernisation. The participation of Chinese financial institutions, including the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, is indicative of Beijing's strategic interest in sustainable transregional projects that connect Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and European markets. For China, this represents a dual benefit: an investment opportunity and a contribution to a novel Eurasian energy network predicated on clean technologies, industrial cooperation, and long-term partnerships. This pragmatic, technologically oriented approach serves to enhance the project's viability and resilience in the face of global turbulence.

A paradox is emerging in global politics. While discussions of "green fatigue" are circulating on a global scale, regions that adopt a strategic approach are developing infrastructure with a view to the decades ahead. Investments in underwater cables, interstate grids, and synchronised energy systems are not short-term trends; rather, they reflect an understanding of long-term demand. The question that needs to be addressed is why this demand is considered inevitable. The response to this question is straightforward and non-ideological in nature. The notion of clean air does not constitute a political stance in itself. The notion that access to clean and potable water can be employed as a geopolitical tool is demonstrably fallacious. Despite the efforts of certain actors to promote such a perspective, the fact remains that the quality of water directly impacts human lives, economic activity, and regional resilience. The phenomenon of environmental degradation, the increasing frequency of extreme climate events, and the mounting pressure on healthcare systems represent direct economic costs. In the event of a cessation in the green transition, a situation is to be expected in which the costs of pollution exceed those of modernisation.
Moreover, technological logic also supports the use of green energy. Solar and wind capacities are becoming increasingly cost-effective on an annual basis, storage technologies are undergoing continual improvement, and clean energy markets are experiencing sustained growth, which renders a return to the green agenda virtually inevitable. Despite the capacity of governments to temporarily modify the rate of progress, business and innovation continue to advance. In this context, the South Caucasus is not peripheral but central to the emerging energy architecture of Eurasia. The green corridor project is not merely a response to European demand, it is an investment in a future where resilience, diversification, and environmental security define states' competitiveness. The apparent "cooling" that is being witnessed at the present time is, in essence, a period of regrouping. It is evident that, while the world may experience a deceleration in its pace, it cannot disregard the fundamental factors that are crucial for the establishment of sustainable and habitable environments, the promotion of public health, and the advancement of technological innovation.

Elbrus Mamedov

SR-CENTER.INFO