Is the Great Game 2.0 starting in the South Caucasus?

Just a few years ago, the South Caucasus was perceived by world powers primarily as a region of unresolved conflicts, political instability, and clashing interests of Russia, Turkey, and the West. Today the situation is changing rapidly. The region is increasingly viewed not as a periphery of global politics but as one of the key elements of the emerging architecture of a new Eurasia.

At first glance, it seems that the issue is merely about building new railways, ports, and highways. However, a much deeper process is actually taking place. Almost simultaneously, the major global players, including China, the European Union, Turkey, the United States, India, the Persian Gulf states, and even Russia, are beginning to pay special attention to developing the transport connectivity of the South Caucasus. This indicates that the struggle is gradually shifting from the military and political plane to the realm of geoeconomics. That is why the question increasingly arises of whether a new Great Game is starting in the South Caucasus. However, unlike in the nineteenth century, today's competition is of a completely different nature.

The classic Great Game was a rivalry between the British and Russian empires for control over Central Asia and the Caucasus. The main goal back then was to expand territorial influence, deploy military garrisons, and establish political control. In the twenty first century, the object of competition has changed. Today states seek to control not so much the territory as the directions of movement for goods, capital, energy, digital data, and industrial chains. If fortresses and military bases were once the main symbols of power, today deepwater ports, railway terminals, logistics centers, and modern transport corridors are becoming them. In fact, global politics is gradually transitioning from the geopolitics of territorial control to the geoeconomics of connectivity. It is the South Caucasus that has found itself at the center of this process today.

The authors of most modern international studies agree on one conclusion, which is that the main resource of the South Caucasus is becoming its geographical location. The region connects Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East, and the Black Sea basin, turning into a natural bridge between the East and the West. For example, the analysis of the report Connectivity and Competition in the South Caucasus and Geography as a Source of Power is dedicated to this topic, where geography is considered a source of political and economic influence. Following the outbreak of the Russia and Ukraine war, the significance of this geography increased sharply. The traditional overland route through Russian territory has become less attractive for a significant portion of international carriers. Simultaneously, instability in the Red Sea and periodic maritime logistics crises have forced governments and businesses to seek additional routes between Europe and Asia. As a result, the South Caucasus has ceased to be just an alternative. It is becoming an essential element of global logistics.

For global trade today, the Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans Caspian International Transport Route, attracts the most attention. Just a few years ago, it was perceived as an additional transport direction between China and Europe. The Middle Corridor is now viewed as a strategic route ensuring the resilience of global trade amid geopolitical instability. We are no longer talking only about container transportation. A new transport system is being formed, uniting China, Central Asia, the South Caucasus, Turkey, and Europe.
Just ten years ago, world powers competed in the South Caucasus primarily for political influence. Today investments are becoming the main tool. The European Union is expanding the financing of transport projects through the Global Gateway initiative, while the United States is promoting initiatives aimed at developing transport connectivity, ensuring the resilience of logistics routes, and integrating the countries of the region into European transport networks. China, in turn, continues to consistently develop the Belt and Road initiative, actively participating in the modernization of the South Caucasus and Middle Corridor infrastructure, and viewing the region as a vital link in the Eurasian transport system. International financial institutions are allocating billions of dollars for railway construction, port development, and the digitalization of transport procedures. We are seeing increased financial participation from the World Bank, the European Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Asian Development Bank in Middle Corridor projects. In fact, the struggle is no longer for political declarations but for the right to finance the development of Eurasia.

The peculiarity of the Chinese strategy is that Beijing focuses predominantly on diplomatic instruments of cooperation and influence. Chinese influence is built through infrastructure construction and industrial cooperation, as well as investments, logistics development, and the creation of new production chains. That is why Chinese policy is often perceived as significantly less confrontational than the traditional geopolitics of Western powers. For China, the South Caucasus represents not an object of political domination but an important link in the pan Eurasian transport system.

For many years, issues of democracy, reforms, and the rule of law remained the main instruments of political influence for the European Union in the South Caucasus. But today a completely new dimension is being added to this. Europe is increasingly interested in reliable transport routes, energy security, and the resilience of supply chains. That is why the attention of Brussels is gradually shifting toward infrastructure projects. Economic connectivity is becoming one of the key tools of European foreign policy.

For Ankara, the Middle Corridor is of particular importance. Turkey gets the opportunity to finally consolidate its role as the main connecting link between Europe and the Turkic world. The development of the Baku Tbilisi Kars railway line, the modernization of port infrastructure, and the strengthening of ties with Central Asia allow Turkey to significantly enhance its influence.
Perhaps no country in the region benefits from the ongoing changes as much as Georgia. The Black Sea ports, railway infrastructure, and the Anaklia deepwater port project can turn the country into one of the most important logistics centers in Eurasia. At the same time, it is around Anaklia that the competition of interests among various external players is manifested. Who will participate in the development of this project is a question not only of economics but also of long term geopolitical balance.

Azerbaijan is gradually turning into the central link between Central Asia and Europe. The Alyat port, railway routes through the country, and the development of the free economic zone are creating the foundation for a new logistics architecture. Baku is increasingly using its transit position as a foreign policy tool.
Against the backdrop of changing regional architecture, Armenia is also trying to find its place. The Crossroads of Peace concept reflects the aspiration to integrate into new transport projects. If the process of normalizing relations continues, Armenia could become an additional link in the regional transport system. However, this scenario will require long term political stability and significant infrastructure investments.

Today the South Caucasus is becoming the only region where the interests of the Chinese Belt and Road initiative and the European Global Gateway program, along with the Turkish transport strategy and Central Asian projects, the International North South Transport Corridor, and American connectivity initiatives intersect simultaneously. Such a concentration of strategic projects has virtually no analogues in modern Eurasia.

The most important conclusion is the understanding of a simple pattern, which is that the higher the level of security in the region, the more actively investments flow. No transport corridor can function fully in conditions of constant instability. Therefore, the development of transport connectivity objectively increases the interest of all participants in preserving long term peace.
Can the ongoing processes be called a new Great Game in the Caucasus? Partially yes. However, modern competition is fundamentally different from the rivalry of the nineteenth century. After all, today states are competing not for control over territories but for the right to become the organizers of global trade. The winner is no longer the one with the strongest army. The winner is the one capable of offering the most efficient logistics, the most modern infrastructure, and the most attractive conditions for international business.

The South Caucasus is entering a completely new historical era. The region is gradually transforming from a space of geopolitical rivalry into a space of geoeconomic cooperation. It is transport corridors, investments, digital connectivity, and infrastructure development that are becoming the defining factors of its future. And the significance of the Middle Corridor and other routes already goes far beyond regional logistics and is directly linked to the restructuring of Eurasian trade ties. Therefore, the main question today is no longer whether a new Great Game is starting, but whether the states of the South Caucasus will be able to use the intensifying competition among world powers for their own development, or if the region will once again become merely an arena for the struggle of foreign interests.

Elbrus Mamedov

SR-CENTER.INFO